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Analysis Topic: Interest Rates and the Bond Market

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Interest-Rates

Thursday, March 10, 2011

Pimco Dumps All U.S. Treasury Bonds, Six Reasons Why They Got it Wrong / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Mike_Shedlock

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticlePimco's Bill Gross has been dumping US government debt in favor of other alternatives including emerging-market opportunities. Looking ahead, I think it's more likely to be a bullish setup for treasuries than not.

First, please consider the news.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, March 10, 2011

Bank of England Interest Rate Indecision, UK Rates Held at 0.5% for 2 Years / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe Bank of England again decided to do nothing by keeping the UK base interest rate on hold at 0.5% for now 2 full years whilst the inflation fires are burning out of control, rapidly consuming the purchasing power of workers and life time accumulated value of savings. The Bank of England exists purely to service the interest of the bankster elite as evidenced by the fact it funnels cash to the banks at 0.5% to buy government bonds at 3.5% (on leverage) and thus make an instant profit of 60%, whilst the clueless in the mainstream press continue to wonder why the Banks are not lending, they are not lending because they are making risk free profits due artificially held low interest rates, a normalised base interest rate should be north of RPI (5.1%).

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, March 10, 2011

Banks Face Renewed Headwinds / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2011

By: Tony_Pallotta

In the fall of 2010, there was no shortage of news regarding faulty foreclosure processes, aka "robo-signing." Bank stocks took a hit and the threat of a nationwide foreclosure moratorium appeared imminent. Then came the concept of put back risk to the big banks claiming violations of reps and warranty agreements or pooling and servicing agreements (PSAs). Since that time the media has gone rather quiet on the subject and the price action in the bank stocks would imply all is well. BAC settled for pennies on the dollar with one of the GSEs and the stock rocketed that very day as investors were no longer "worried about the uncertainty."

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, March 10, 2011

That Ticking Sound You Hear is the U.S. Bond Market.... / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Money_Morning

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleKeith Fitz-Gerald writes: Many investors are afraid of inflation because they understand the run-up in prices will take a big bite out of their wallets - and their buying power.

While that's a valid concern, I'm much more worried about one of the other possible fallout effects of the expected inflationary surge - the potential for the worst global bond rout in nearly 20 years.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, March 09, 2011

Q.E. Money Printing Negative Feed Back Loop to Hyper-Inflation Oblivion / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing

By: Jim_Willie_CB

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleUSFed Chairman Bernanke and the Quantitative Easing programs are caught in a negative feedback loop, the instruments at risk being the USDollar and the USTreasury Bond. The former suffers from lost integrity and direct inflation effect. The latter suffers from direct intervention and market ruin. The next QE round is guaranteed by the failure of the previous program in an endless cycle to be recognized later this year. Leaders are confused why the recovery does not take root. It is because the entire system is insolvent, and the 0% rate assures total capital destruction, not to mention the big US banks are sacred, never to be liquidated, a primary condition for recovery. Liquidation is tantamount to abdication of power of the Purse and control of the Printing Pre$$, never to happen. The greatest hidden damage is psychological, where the USDollar and its erstwhile trusted USTreasury Bond are no longer viewed as the safe haven.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, March 09, 2011

U.S. Treasury Bond 10 Year Index Elliott Wave Analysis / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: David_Petch

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe daily chart of the 10 Year US Treasury Index is shown below, with upper and lower Bollinger bands in close proximity to the current price. Full stochastics 1, 2 and 3 are shown below in order of descent, with the %K beneath the %D in all three instances. I illustrated the short-term Elliott Wave count, which clearly indicates a change of trend. This is a real trend definer, because gold does well with rising interest rates (not year over year inflation).

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, March 09, 2011

Dallas Fed President Fisher Could Dissent if Crude Oil Prices Maintain Upward Trend / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Asha_Bangalore

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleDallas Fed President Fisher indicated yesterday that he would vote to scale back or discontinue the Fed's Treasury securities buying program of $600 billion at the March 15 FOMC meeting.  Last week, Chairman Bernanke has indicated that only under conditions of strong sustained growth, expanding payrolls, and inflation readings that are consistent with price stability would the Fed consider terminating the program.  Current economic data indicate that the Fed is not even close to meeting these targets. 

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, March 08, 2011

How to Cash in on the Next Big Trend in Bonds / Interest-Rates / International Bond Market

By: Money_Morning

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleMartin Hutchinson writes: There have now been three successful issues by banks in Europe of a new type of investment - the contingent convertible (CoCo).

Since each CoCo issue was for several billion dollars, and European banking authorities want banks to carry a lot of their capital in this form, we should expect issues over here pretty soon. Those who know my cynical attitude towards banking innovation will be surprised to hear me say this, but actually they're a good idea for banks.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, March 08, 2011

How Much of QE2 Has Been Implemented? / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing

By: Asha_Bangalore

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleA1. The Fed announced the implementation of QE2 (quantitative easing, the second round) on November 10, 2010, which involves purchases of $600 billion of longer-term Treasury securities from the private sector. As of this writing, roughly $404 billion of Treasury securities have been purchased. The rest of the planned purchase of Treasury securities (33% of $600 billion) is scheduled to be completed by June 2011. Purchases of Treasury securities, as expected, have led to an increase in the size of the Fed's balance sheet (see Chart 1) to $2.5 trillion.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, March 08, 2011

UK Interest Rate Forecast 2011 - Conclusion and Implications - Part 2 / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThis analysis continues from Part 1 Here

Bank of England Remains Paralysed By Fear of Financial Armageddon

Since August 2007 when the credit crisis first broke the Bank of England has been in near perpetual state of panic, always opting to do nothing rather than something. For instance during 2008 the Bank of England should have been cutting interest rates but instead it kept them on hold at 5% as it remained paralysed by the fear of inflation right up until the world peered over the abyss at financial armageddon.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, March 08, 2011

UK Interest Rate Forecast 2011, Paralysed Bank of England Still Fears Financial Armageddon / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleBritain's coalition government pressed the reset button on the UK Economy during summer 2010, as it has continued to make a plethora of tax raising and spending cut economic austerity announcements over the past 9 months in an attempt to get a grip on the Labour government's legacy of an out of control annual budget deficit of over £150 billion per year that risked bankrupting Britain.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, March 07, 2011

What's Wrong with Government Debt / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: Robert_Murphy

The news abounds with arguments and even riots over so-called austerity measures. Whether in the Middle East, Europe, or even certain US states, the public is realizing just how deep a hole various governments have dug for themselves. In this article I'll outline Uncle Sam's position and then explain why it's such a problem.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, March 04, 2011

Fed Emperor Nakedly Monetizing Debt, Desperately Seeking Stability / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: Jesse

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe Fed is monetizing debt, colloquially known as 'printing money.'

At this point you either understand this or you do not,  and if not it is probably because you will not to do so.  Read full article... Read full article...

 


Interest-Rates

Friday, March 04, 2011

Fed and ECB - A World Apart / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Axel_Merk

The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) and the European Central Bank (ECB) are divided by a common goal: price stability. Fed Chairman Bernanke has made it clear in his recent testimony and speeches that the Fed would react should food and commodity inflation lead to an increase in core inflation. Let's spell this out: the Fed is ready to R E A C T. We are not aware of any central bank that is proud of reacting, but rather acting preemptively to mitigate inflationary concerns; naturally, a central bank may often be forced to react, but to do so by design puts the cynical view that central bankers are too far behind the curve into a new light.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, March 04, 2011

Trading the U.S. Treasury Bond Market With Success / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: readtheticker

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIf you are an avid reader of financial articles, you will have seen many stock charts with all types of technical analysis drawn upon it. You name it, you're seen it, trend lines, moving averages, oscillators, Elliot wave counts, etc. Yet you fail to see a simple technique that assisted a young trader to make millions.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, March 04, 2011

ECB President Trichet’s Remarks Beg Questions on Eurozone Interest Rates / Interest-Rates / ECB Interest Rates

By: Asha_Bangalore

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticlePresident Trichet of European Central Bank (ECB) noted at this morning's press conference that "strong vigilance is warranted with a view to containing upside risks to price stability." This statement implies that the ECB is considering tightening monetary policy in the very near term. President Trichet's hawkish stance is based on the region's inflation rate of 2.3% in January and inflation excluding food and energy was 1.2%. The all-items inflation reading exceeds the ECB's target of 2.0% and reflects a jump in energy prices. So, at the top of Trichet's to-do list is to prepare markets for a higher policy rate from the current level of 1.0%.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, March 03, 2011

How to Profit From the Muni Bond Market Collapse and Subsequent Rebound / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Money_Morning

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleShah Gilani writes: Hedge funds are stalking the $2.9 trillion municipal-bond market like an alley cat stalks a mouse.

In their public statements, Wall Street shills continue to dismiss warnings about "deadbeat states" - and the horrific impact that budgetary shortfalls at the state and local level are going to have on this stodgy slice of the debt market. Anyone who tries to buck this Wall Street view is ridiculed and dismissed as a financial Cassandra.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, March 02, 2011

A No-win Situation for the Fed / Interest-Rates / Central Banks

By: Clif_Droke

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleA situation is developing the global markets which threatens to undo the recovery of the past two years. The price spikes in fuel and especially agriculture prices is the Achilles’ heel of the recovery and may well serve as its death knell before the year is through.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, March 02, 2011

Monetizing Governmental Debt AKA Money Printing or in Bernanke’s Vernacular - Quantitative Easing / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing

By: D_Sherman_Okst

Here are some realities on Quantitive Easing:

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, March 01, 2011

China Holdings of U.S. Treasuries Revised Up An Unsustainable 30% / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Mike_Shedlock

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleAnnual revisions released Monday show that China's holding of US treasuries is 30% greater than reported just weeks ago.

I am not surprised given that persistent rumors of China dumping treasuries made little mathematical sense from a balance of trade standpoint. Instead, I suggested China was accumulating treasuries via trading desks in the UK. We now see that is precisely the case.

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